Luxor RFQ November 2023 Insights: Up and to the Right
As bitcoin and hashprice rally, the ASIC miner market continues to see signs of life.
Bitcoin and hashprice ripped in November, so y’all know what that means for ASIC trading...
That's right, in reaction to the positive price action, ASIC prices for the newest models continued to rise in November from yearly lows, and all of the trading activity kept the Luxor ASIC Trading Desk team busy. Luxor's RFQ marketplace hit another milestone last month, successfully settling over 10,000 rigs and bringing total year-to-date volume to 4.4 EH/s.
The increase in trading volume and ASIC prices coincided with the price of Bitcoin increasing 12.8% over November and closing at $37,700. Hashprice experienced a similarly volatile month, starting at $70/PH/day and ending the month at $75/PH/day — a 7.1% increase. Propelled by both the BTC price rally and a surge in transaction fees from ordinal / inscription activity, hashprice reached a peak of $95/PH/day in the middle of the month.
New ASIC Miners Steal the Show
In recent months, used machine demand outweighed new machine demand, but this trend flipped in November.
Brand new miners constituted the majority of trading volume last month, particularly the S19k Pro. Between both Luxor ASIC Trading Desk OTC deals and RFQ sales, 6,200 units of the S19k Pro representing 734.7 PH/s changed hands over November. This substantial demand confirms our prior prediction that the S19k Pro would be the most sought-after rig as we approach the new year.
That said, used machines were still hot in November, just not as hot as the S19k Pro. For instance, on Luxor RFQ, buyers scooped up 706 units of S19 series and 596 units of M30S series ASIC miners. Taking advantage of the low prices for these models, the buyers were typically miners based in lower-cost areas (like Latin America) or small-scale natural gas mine operators.
As we mentioned before, the S19k Pro was the most sought-after next rig in November on Luxor’s ASIC Trading Desk. Looking specifically at next-generation models, the S19 XP was the second-most traded next-gen model, with 117 units changing hands compared to 48 in October; the uptick in volume for this model could be due to the fact that the average price of the S19 XP in November was $20.40/TH, compared to $21.20/TH in October — a 3.8% decrease. Conversely, our ASIC Trading Desk cleared 44 Antminer S21 units in November versus 66 units in October, and this model saw a significant 28% increase to its average clearing price from $14.80/TH in October to $18.90/TH in November.
Next-Gen ASIC Miner Price Volatility
As the price of Bitcoin surges, miners are rushing to secure ASIC miners before prices increase further. This hash-rush has led to intense competition on the global market, and the added demand created some significant ASIC price volatility in November.
As a result, the delta between minimum and maximum clearing prices for the S19k Pro and S19 XP varied dramatically in November. Notably though, the minimum and maximum price window for the S21 was much narrower, which makes sense given that this new model is the industry leader for efficiency and hashrate and is in high demand.
Luxor RFQ November 2023 Buy-Side Demand
The majority of buy-side demand in November 2023 came for new machines — particularly next-generation machines.
Once again, the S19k Pro was the most-demanded model, with over 1,872 units demanded from buy-side market makers in November. The S21 was a close second at 1,664, as demand for this new model outpaced supply, something we saw in October as well.
Next-gen machines in general were highly sought-after in November, with the S19 XP being the third most requested model. We received one request for 1,000 used S19 XPs in November, which lead to the higher-than-usual demand for used S19 XPs displayed in the chart above.
Notably, as we saw in October, there is still significant appetite for used M30S units. There was also strong demand for both used and new S19j Pros in November, specifically from miners with lower-than-average power prices.
Even though the demand was slower relative to other models, buyer appetite for the M50S+ and M50S++ picked up in November compared to October, as well.
Luxor ASIC Trading Desk November 2023 Takeaways
November’s trading volume carried forward October’s increased market appetite for Bitcoin miners, perhaps cementing a trend change in the ASIC market.
Indeed, as Bitcoin’s price recovers and hashprice with it, the ASIC miner market is exhibiting bullish activity. As anticipated, the S19k Pro with its attractive price point continues to attract buyers, while these buyers preferred new machines in general in November.
With regards to other next-generation rigs, the S21 saw its price increase substantially as the promotional pricing from its launch wears off and we creep closer to the first batch’s delivery in January 2024. The S19 XP, on the other hand, is declining in price with the S21 now on the market, and we anticipate that its premium to other ASICs will continue to fall in the coming year.
If Bitcoin’s price continues its rally, we expect to see a similarly active December as miners continue to pad their hashrate in anticipation of the April 2024 Halving.
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